Margery Egerton

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Pension reform hot-button issue in SF mayor's race (Providence Journal)

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Trading v. Investing | Above the Market

Home ? Trading v.?Investing

November 3, 2011 |

Trading and investing can both be effective strategies and they?generally agree on a number of major points.

We want to succeed. Traders will generally define success a bit differently, but we all want it just like we all want to be profitable.
We need a carefully designed plan and must execute it.? As the expression goes, nobody plans to fail but we do fail to plan. Investors and traders who are successful over the long haul rely upon an evidence-based plan rather than luck.
We must be contrarian.? Traders can follow a trend and be successful for a while, but long-term success for traders and investors alike requires going against the flow because the markets are a zero sum game.
We must remember that ?this time isn?t different.? The markets are mean-reverting. Ignore this at your peril.?
There is no such thing as a free lunch.? In other words, risk and reward generally correlate.
We must control our emotions. Impulsive actions based upon emotions, intuitions or one?s ?gut? will be costly.
Most players will not control their emotions.? This fact provides tremendous opportunity.? As Warren Buffett says, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.
Costs matter.? Whether these are transaction costs, fees, taxes or something else, overall costs have a huge impact on the bottom line.
Always consider who?s on the other side of every transaction.? As the expression goes, if you?ve been playing poker for 20 minutes and haven?t figured out who the patsy is, it?s probably you.? Which leads to?
Am I a being duped? We all want to be Michael Burry.? That starts by not being Wing Chau.? Of course, we can all be both (think John Paulson).

But the contrasts between investing and trading can be dramatic, as illustrated by the metric below.

We all have trouble thinking long-term, of course, in part because we tend to discount future value far too much (along with difficulties on account of optimism bias and what Dan Kahneman calls the planning fallacy ? we tend to overestimate our ability to control the future). If you doubt me, ask yourself how your diet and exercise plans tend to turn out. So, are you a trader or an investor?

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Tags: Investing, Trading

Categories: Capital Markets

Author:rpseawright

Robert P. Seawright is the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California.

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Source: http://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/trading-v-investing/

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Friday, November 4, 2011

NH ends calendar uncertainty with Jan. 10 primary (AP)

CONCORD, N.H. ? New Hampshire on Wednesday scheduled its first-in-the-nation presidential primary for Jan. 10, finally giving candidates a concrete calendar after months of uncertainty.

The date announced by Secretary of State Bill Gardner Wednesday had been widely expected since Nevada Republicans voted last month to shift their presidential caucuses to early February, ending what had become a bitter standoff among rival states. Gardner had warned that Nevada's initial decision to hold its contest in mid-January could force New Hampshire to vote in early December.

"I was sort of on the edge of a cliff," Gardner said. "I was hoping if I had to move, there would be a puddle of water to jump into if necessary."

It's a position Gardner knows well, though he said this year's wrangling over the date wasn't the worst he's faced by a longshot ? that distinction goes to 1984, when he faced intense pressure from the Democratic National Committee to change the date.

New Hampshire state law requires the primary to be held at least seven days ahead of any other similar contest and gives Gardner exclusive power to set the date. That has made him the target of criticism from other states hoping to grab some of the spotlight.

Critics also argue that New Hampshire is too small and too white to play such a major role in picking presidents, but Gardner and other defenders of New Hampshire say the country ? and the candidates ? are well-served because the primary requires close contact with voters, not just name-recognition or advertising cash. In fact, thanks to a random drawing, the first candidate listed on Republican ballot will be Joe Story of Jacksonville, Fl., whose website is theaveragejoeforpresident.com. Candidates will be listed alphabetically after him, putting front-runner Mitt Romney nearly at the bottom.

"Really, the election for the candidates begins today," said state Rep. Jim Splaine, who authored the state law that puts New Hampshire first.

New Hampshire's decision brings welcome clarity to the path for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. New Hampshire will vote a week after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, with South Carolina's primary on Jan. 21, Florida's on Jan. 31 and the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 4.

Some feared that jockeying states might cram more contests into January, creating an informal national primary that would deprive second-tier candidates of opportunities to regroup and raise money as they raced from state to state. With the calendar set, campaigns can now launch strategies that had been held hostage to an uncertain calendar.

Already, there are signs they are ramping up. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, for example, begins airing his first television advertisements in New Hampshire on Wednesday.

Though Wednesday's announcement comes just 10 weeks before primary day, Gardner has cut it closer before. During the last presidential campaign, he waited until Nov. 21 to set the Jan. 8 date, the earliest date yet.

"I thought after last cycle we would not face this again, and I'm hopeful in next cycle we won't face it again," Gardner said Wednesday. "But there is no simple answer."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111102/ap_on_el_ge/us_primary_scramble

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Thursday, November 3, 2011

Nicolas Cage's son Weston files for divorce

Whoever said it wouldn't last was right on.

Nicolas Cage's eldest son, Weston, has filed for divorce from his wife of six months, Nikki Williams Cage.

Story: Could Nicolas Cage and John Travolta be centuries old?

And, judging by their respective Facebook posts, the decision to split up was not one of their "irreconcilable differences."

More Entertainment stories
1. Kardashian's mom says 'wedding wasn't a sham'
  Kris Jenner addresses the fallout from her daughter's decision to divorce new husband Kris Humphries. "It saddens all of us."
2. Snooki: The Situation is 'already broke!'
3. Know a baby Bella? 'Twilight' may be reason
4. 'Idol' vs. 'X Factor': Who has the better host?
5. 'Harry Potter' DVDs will magically disappear

READ: Weston Cage's Facebook Bombshells: Divorcing Pregnant Wife, Claims "I Was the One Abused"

"The single life is perfect," Williams, having already dropped the "Cage" from her profile, wrote on her Facebook wall.

Story: Nic Cage: Naked man with Fudgesicle woke me

But, really, that was nothing compared to Weston, who wrote on his own page: "WELL ITS OFFICAL . THE DIVORCE IS SETTLED! ..................LADIES, DADDY IS BACK ahahahhahahaahh oh god! its on."

GALLERY: Celebrity Splits

In court documents filed Oct. 27 and obtained by E! News, Cage listed their date of separation as Oct. 24, their six-month anniversary ? even though he wrote back in July that he planned to divorce Williams, whom he also implied at the time was pregnant. They do not have any children, however.

MORE: View the divorce petition

The not-quite-21-year-old Cage, who was arrested in July on suspicion of felony domestic violence and then entered rehab, is also requesting that the judge not order him to pay spousal support.

Source: http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/45130298/ns/today-entertainment/

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Election 2012 challenge: How to win over 'frustrated' Walmart moms (video)

A Republican and a Democratic pollster share their survey data on Walmart moms, 27 percent of registered women voters. A majority voted for Obama in 2008, then swung toward the GOP in 2010.

What do Walmart moms want, and who will win their hearts in the 2012 election?

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That question lies at the center of this critical bloc of swing voters, according to Republican pollster Neil Newhouse and Democratic pollster Margie Omero, who released a survey Wednesday on this demographic group.

A Walmart mom is a woman with children age 18 or younger living at home who shops at Walmart at least once a month. They represent 27 percent of all registered women voters and 14 percent of the overall electorate. A majority voted for President Obama in 2008, swung toward the Republicans in the 2010 midterms, and are still unhappy with Mr. Obama. But they haven?t given up on him.

?These women are frustrated,? says Mr. Newhouse of Public?Opinion Strategies, speaking at a Monitor-hosted breakfast Wednesday. ?They see Wall Street getting bailed out. ... There?s a resentment there that they see a government activism that doesn?t impact them directly. They want their share.?

Specifically, says Ms. Omero, this group is more concerned about paying for college and the price of groceries than they are about how high their taxes are.

?When I listen to the Walmart moms, in these focus groups, they didn?t say, ?You know what I need, I need fewer environmental regulations for businesses, that will really help me out,? ? says Omero. ?They said, ?I would like college affordability, and milk for everybody, and affordable housing, pay my electric bill.? These very tangible things.?

How these concerns play into each party?s election strategy is a different question. Newhouse is the pollster for presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, though he declined to speak for the campaign. Still, when asked about Mr. Romney?s poll numbers ? which seem stuck in the mid-20s among GOP voters ? Newhouse asserted that ?this campaign has just begun, and we?ve got a long ways to go.?

For now, when asked to frame a broader Republican narrative for the election, Newhouse?zeroed in on personal responsibility.

?It?s probably that if we get government out of the way and out of our lives, that at least to a greater extent, it will enable these families to make ends meet and to do better on a personal basis,? Newhouse said. ?It will help in terms of job growth, reducing the deficit. It?s a more complicated message when you?ve got 52 percent of these voters who say they expect government to play more of a role.?

The personal-responsibility message may seem at odds with a demographic that is looking for more help from the government, but the Walmart-sponsored poll found that Walmart moms are more likely to blame themselves than any other group or person for the state of the economy.

Twenty-five percent of Walmart moms blame ?people who took on too much credit and live beyond their means,? the No. 1 answer. In second place was former President George W. Bush, with 22 percent. Third was ?Wall Street banks and big corporations,? at 15 percent. Obama came in fourth with 7 percent.

Among the public at large, big banks and corporations came in for more blame (21 percent) than Mr. Bush (15 percent), the pollsters said.

But no matter where the blame is placed, there?s no doubt the nation is in an extended sour mood.

?This is the longest period of sustained pessimism we?ve had in this country since we started doing polling,? Newhouse says. ?We?ve had, I think this is 93 or 94 straight months where a plurality of Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track.?

Newhouse notes that Obama?s negative job approval is noteworthy for its intensity. And even if GOP voters have not coalesced around a challenger to Obama, Newhouse isn?t worried about getting voters to turn out next year.

?When people are upset, they?re going to vote,? he says.

And for now, says Omero, Walmart moms in particular have yet to engage in the 2012 campaign.?They are focused on matters closer to home. For Obama and the Democrats, that presents a challenge. Even though Obama won the ?Walmart mom? vote in 2008, it?s not clear the Democrats can get them again.

?They?ll definitely need more ?touches? from a campaign to be engaged at the same level of more regular voters,? Omero says.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/vl3Kw5y2Ay8/Election-2012-challenge-How-to-win-over-frustrated-Walmart-moms-video

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